These films are for the audience

Sarah's Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are Sunday and I have seen every nominated film and performance in all the major categories*. I think we can all agree that this is as impressive as actually being in one of those films so I will pause here for your applause.

That is basically all ten Best Picture nominees plus Rustin which Colman Domingo was nominated in for Best Actor and Nyad which Annette Benning was nominated in for Best Actress and Jodie Foster was nominated in for Best Supporting Actor. 

Instead of working through the categories, I’m going to go through the films and tell you what I think they’ll win for and which ones I think should win. 

Past Lives

I’ve had some time. I’ve let it simmer. And this is my favorite film of the year. It is quiet. It is insightful. It is impactful. I’ve kept thinking about it for weeks and weeks. I absolutely loved it. I am spitting mad Greta Lee wasn’t nominated for Best Actress. We’ll be lucky if it wins Original Screenplay, which is probably its strongest opportunity.

Anatomy of a Fall

This is such a close second. This film feels like good old-fashioned filmmaking and also fresh at the same time. Sandra Hüller was so damn good in it. I think it will most likely win Original Screenplay and honestly I wouldn’t even be mad.

American Fiction

Loved, loved, doubled loved. This movie was so sharp and so biting but also lovely and kind in certain parts as well. If you’ve ever had any interaction with the publishing industry, run don’t walk to see this movie. I would love to see Jeffrey Wright win Best Actor but I don’t think he will. I also thought Sterling K. Brown stole every scene he was in but that probably won’t be enough.

Barbie

This movie was brilliant and a blockbuster, which feels like the real gift to me. I love Greta and think she keeps getting better and better but it’s not plumbing the depths like Past Lives or Anatomy of a Fall. That used to be ok to Academy voters but I’m not sure that’s still true. Also, I think they’re just mad it’s by a woman and about women so…I do expect it to win a lot of technical awards like costume and production design.

Maestro

I’m with Anne Helen Petersen. I don’t know what Bradley Cooper is doing or what he wants (besides an Oscar which I don’t think he’s going to get this round) but I really am enjoying the ride. I really loved this film. I thought the directorial choices he made were interesting if a little try hard (which strangely fit the character, so I don’t know!). I thought his performance was great and Carey Mulligan was superb. Made me want to know more about Bernstein, which always seems like a sign of a successful biopic.

Oppenheimer

It’s fantastic. It’s going to win Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, and probably best Adapted Screenplay. Weirdly the person I most want to win is Emily Blunt for Best Supporting Actress but she won’t, which is a bummer.

The Holdovers

The Holdovers reminds me of all the smaller independent films we all enjoyed in the 90s that Hollywood doesn’t make anymore...except I guess now they do! Which is the best part of this movie. Paul Giamatti is very Paul Giamatti in it, which is a compliment. I thought Da’Vine Joy Randolph was good not great in it, which might be my most controversial Oscar opinion because I expect her to win Best Supporting Actress.

Poor Things

This movie is trippy and beautiful and Emma Stone’s performance is Oscar-worthy (more than Lala Land which she actually won for!). At the end of the day, it’s too art house-y for me, which is a descriptor I just made up. Basically, the director Yorgos Lanthimos is a little too impressed with himself for my tastes.

The Zone of Interest

I was really interested in the premise of the film and as excited as one can be to see a film about Auschwitz. But this is another film in my “maybe art house films aren’t for me” pile. I don’t need happy films or easy films but this film’s conclusion did not earn what it required of it’s audience watching it.  

Killers of the Flower Moon

This movie was bad and should not be nominated for almost anything. It was too long and poorly edited. Lily Gladstone will win Best Actress and she deserves it for carrying this entire film on her back for over three hours.

Rustin

Colmon Domingo is great in this movie and deserves the nomination although I don’t think he’ll win. The film overall is uneven but worth a watch if you know nothing about Bayard Rustin’s life.

Nyad

I think maybe people are just excited to see Jodie Foster again. She’s fine in this movie but not great. Annette Benning did what the Academy often requires which is to transform yourself and put yourself through enormous physical exertion. I still don’t think she’s going to win although the most fascinating thing to me as has been the “For Your Consideration” ads in the New York Times that show all the films Benning has been nominated for and basically say “She just deserves one by now who cares if this isn’t her best work!”

I won’t lie and say I’ve seen all the nominating films from past years but this year felt better. The films were easier to watch (except you, Zone of Interest) and for the audience a way previous films were not. I absolutely loved so many of these films and I can’t wait to celebrate them on Sunday!

*Well crap, I haven’t seen Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple (because I can’t see a movie musical based on a musical based on a movie based on a book. I have to draw the line somewhere!) and May December which is nominated for Original Screenplay because I have three young sons and I just can’t. So let’s define major categories as Film, Actor, Actress, Director!