Do the New Hampshire Results Mean the Primary is Over?

TOPICS DISCUSSED

New Hampshire Primary Results
What Comes Next for the Campaigns
Outside of Politics: Oscar Nominations

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TRANSCRIPT

Sarah [00:00:07] This is Sarah Stewart Holland.

Beth [00:00:09] This is Beth Silvers.

Sarah [00:00:10] You're listening to Pantsuit Politics.

Beth [00:00:12] Where we take a different approach to the news.

[00:00:14] Music Interlude.

[00:00:29] We are so glad that you're here today. We're are just going to discuss the results of the New Hampshire presidential primaries and what comes next in the nominating contest, and just all the periphery that Donald J. Trump creates in the process of having an election. I was tempted, Sarah, to wear my fanciest dress that's probably not that fancy for this conversation.

Sarah [00:00:48] So rude. I cannot help him [crosstalk].

Beth [00:00:52] You're so salty about that specific line. But we'll get to it. We'll get there. We always end the show talking about what's in our minds Outside of Politics. Today, Sarah will talk to us about the Oscar nominees for Best Picture. Now, if you're a long time listener, you know that I have very pedestrian taste in movies. So stick around if you love film and want to hear Sarah talk about it, or if you would like to hear me chime in with limited commentary on like Aquaman and Mean Girls. We got you covered either way, wherever you are.

Sarah [00:01:19] You're always such an important part of our conversations, and there are several ways for you to jump in after listening to our episodes. Financial supporters of the show discuss our episodes on discord and in comment threads on Patreon. Those comment threads are always so helpful and fun after an episode. That's where I go to see how the episode is hitting. Also, every listener is invited to email us at Hello@pantsuitpoliticsshow.com. Now, we do ask one simple thing. If you do not need a response, you just want to share how you're feeling, just put that in the subject line. No response needed. We use that account to ensure that all four of us: me, Beth, Alise, Maggie can read your notes and your insights and your experiences. We read them all. And your questions and thoughts inform our planning and preparation and processing for every episode.

Beth [00:02:04] Sarah and I read those listener messages every Wednesday and this week on Wednesday, I noticed, Sarah, how many notes started with some version of "Hi friends" and I just loved it. It was so encouraging to me.

Sarah [00:02:14] I know exactly where they're coming from. I've started ending the news brief with "Love y'all." Like I'm wrapping up a phone call with my friends. I'm like, "Love 'all. I'll see you tomorrow." I can't help myself.

Beth [00:02:22] Yeah. Just made me very grateful. I feel like when I tell people who don't know anything about us that I talk about politics on the internet, they would be surprised to see my inbox full of "Hi friends." It's a beautiful thing. So very grateful for all of you.

Sarah [00:02:36] So true.

Beth [00:02:36] So let's do that. Let's talk politics on the internet today. New Hampshire has spoken. Let's discuss what we heard.

[00:02:40] Music Interlude.

[00:02:48] Okay, Sarah, I thought we should just start with some numbers because I thought that was helpful grounding around Iowa too. New Hampshire, much better turnout than Iowa. A record turnout, in fact, in New Hampshire for the Republican primary. Over 320,000 people voted. Still a small number relative to the entirety of the country, but 320,000 people a big number for New Hampshire. Trump won with 54.3% of the vote, so just under 175,000 people voted for him. Then Nikki Haley came in with 43.3%, about 140,000 votes for her. The most interesting number I found in the details of these votes is that Trump performed in New Hampshire's three largest cities, nearly 20 points better than he did in 2016. And I just had to take a minute with that because I found it a little surprising for New Hampshire, but that's where we are.

Sarah [00:03:44] I don't think that's surprising, because in 2016 they still had lots of other moderate and independent and sort of traditional conservative options. He didn't win Iowa. We are still talking about Ted Cruz and all kinds of people in 2016. So I wouldn't take too much away from that because I don't think that he was the sort of decided frontrunner by this point in 2016, so he would have some ground to gain.

Beth [00:04:10] And then on the Democratic side, turnout was about 89,000, small turnout, because we had a spat in New Hampshire among the Democrats. And I think it's important to talk about that spat for a second. New Hampshire has a law on its books that it will have the first in the nation primary. The Democratic Party decided that it wanted its first primary to be in South Carolina, and New Hampshire Democrats said, cool, we're still going to do our thing here.

Sarah [00:04:36] Well, because it is in their Constitution, in their defense.

Beth [00:04:39] And so the Democratic Party said, fine, but we won't see your delegates and President Biden is going to boycott effectively your primary. So he was not on the ballot, and that's why. But the New Hampshire Democrat said, "We aren't going to get mad. We're going to get organized, and we're just going to have a write in campaign, and we're still going to express our support for President Biden." And that worked. He won with 56.4% of the vote.

Sarah [00:05:05] Amazing. I listen to an NPR reporter who was like in one of the county clerk's office, and she said it was very entertaining to hear their write-ins because I have to, like, read them all and certify that that's who they wrote in, and talk about an opportunity to discuss people's handwriting. I bet you. She said it was funny. People were writing their dogs and their relatives and all kinds of things. I mean, you have 10,000 unprocessed write-ins, almost 11,000. I'd love to see a fun, random selection of what those were.

Beth [00:05:33] Well, and just emblematic of the Democratic Party, there was also an effort organized for people to write-in the word ceasefire on their votes to just express their feelings about what's happening in Gaza. So a lot going on there. Dean Phillips, the probably main challenger to President Biden on the Democratic side, came in with 22,918 votes, 19.5%, and then Marianne Williamson got 4.6% of the vote. There are more unprocessed right end votes than Marianne Williamson votes, so she just has not picked up any traction there. So that's the new miracle scene out of New Hampshire. Sarah, I know that you watched Trump's speech after the primary and had some thoughts. So what did you hear from the former president that you think is important to discuss today?

Sarah [00:06:22] Well, I hadn't watched him in a while. I know that's the case for many Americans. I do agree with some of the analysis out there that's like they need to start showing his speeches so people can remember how off the grid he is about half the time. It's just the irony, first of all and him criticizing someone for making a speech that sounds like they won when they didn't. And then not mere minutes later being, "Well, I not won in 2020. Don't forget, I won in" 2020. And I'm like, you can't help it. He can't help himself. I did have a few moments where I was like, okay, this was a good, healthy reminder for me. And not just that I think he is broken, but that there's some things going on there that we should pay attention to, that we shouldn't blow off. It was interesting to me because I think so often, even here on the podcast, we'll talk about the progressive left as not giving anything to people to cling to around the country. Racism is permanent, we're dying empire, light stage capitalism, that sort of vibe. But listening to the speech, I'm like, Lord, there's the equivalent of that on the other side. This like the country's in decline, they hate our country, it's dying like now. The only hope they offer is him. Don't worry. I'll fix it. I'll fix it all. No big deal. I got it, guys. But there is still that equivalent of, like, everything is terrible. And then, of course, there was a lot on immigration, so much on immigration. My favorite part, Beth, is he brings out this border guy who's, like, "I've served all these presidents, they've all done something to secure the border, but Donald Trump did the most." But as Donald Trump was bringing him out, he goes, "Bring out this guy. He's like central casting border guy." And I'm like, central casting. That's always it. That's it, isn't it? That's always, always it.

Beth [00:08:20] It's always it. It's a new day. But it's the same speech, always just different iterations. I just thought the contrast between his Iowa after the caucus performance and this after the primary performance is striking because Nikki Haley is clearly under his skin now.

Sarah [00:08:43] Yeah.

Beth [00:08:43] And I like that for all of us. I am here for that, for all of us. And I like that she came out and said she wasn't done yet and I hope she means it. I really badly want her to mean it, but the testing is in him in this speech, and I think that that testing is probably drove him to engage in weird ways with his collection of former opponents on the stage.

Sarah [00:09:08] Oh yeah, he had all kinds of people up there, and he made jokes about the whole time. He was only going to give Vivek a minute, but Vivek came out, took that minute, and was way more energetic than him. Way more energetic. I thought, man, I wouldn't bring him out that often, friend, because he is a stark contrast to you. Tim Scott spoke, did not use a lot of time. Couldn't get out of there fast enough. He did have this weird moment where Trump was like, you must really hate her because you're endorsing me and she appointed you to the Senate. And he's like, no, I just really love you. And I was like, that's gross. And he did make reference to Tim Scott's engagement. Which would you like my conspiracy theory, Beth?

Beth [00:09:46] I would.

Sarah [00:09:47] I think that Tim Scott is going to be the pick for vice president. And Trump said, you can be the pick, but you have to get engaged. That has to happen. I don't want a single guy as my vice president.

Beth [00:09:56] I think that's so interesting. I think he also got engaged because he wants to be the vice president, and I think there is a 0% chance that Trump will let him do that. I think Trump will humiliate him the way he is humiliated many others who've wanted some kind of prime position with Trump.

Sarah [00:10:09] Well, friend, he could get that job and he'd still humiliate you.

Beth [00:10:12] Well, that's the truth. That is the fact of it. But I don't think he'll get it.

Sarah [00:10:16] I can't wait to see who it is. I'm just on tenterhooks.

Beth [00:10:19] Oh, yeah. Pins and needles.

Sarah [00:10:21] So it just was a lot of the same, but some good reminders of the stuff he brings up this. Our great American cities are in decline. I'm going to fix it all. My favorite was that he promised the people of New Hampshire that in the first year, he would reduce their energy costs by 50%. I was like, I hope somebody is writing this down. I did, I wrote it down. Just like he promised he was going to get term limits in the first year of his presidency, which he never did. Not that it matters, but I just thought, you are writing checks your ass can't cash. But it's going to be drill, baby, drill. That's how he's going to get it down. Don't worry. But it's clearly getting under his skin. And I think it's just the point we made before, he will not be able to keep that professional united tone. Because if it's not Nikki Haley getting under his skin, it'll be aging E Jean Carroll, it'll be Fani Willis, it'll be some judge. He's just perpetually pissed off right now for lots of reasons.

Beth [00:11:15] I would like to make the case that Nikki Haley might be capable of pissing him off in a newish way.

Sarah [00:11:21] Okay, I'm excited about that. I'm excited about anything that involves newish way and Donald Trump in the same sentence.

Beth [00:11:28] It's just ish because nothing is really new with him ever. So don't get too excited. But I think something that Nikki has in common with Trump is a pretty big ego. And I say that not disparagingly. You must have a pretty big ego to think that you should be the president. So good for them. But you saw how Vivek genuinely made her mad, and then she got even madder with Ron DeSantis toward the end. In that one on one debate with the two of them, I don't think there is any posturing there. I think she was genuinely mad.

Sarah [00:12:01] And I think it's the same for Vivek. Trump brought up a lot. Like Vivek was madder than I was that she wasn't dropping out.

Beth [00:12:08] And I think that she is about to make Trump really, really mad and that his digging back at her will make her really, really mad. And what I think might be new about that is when he does react differently to women than men. You saw this with Hillary Clinton. He really gets mad at women in a different way than he does with men.

Sarah [00:12:27] Yeah, it's visceral.

Beth [00:12:28] It's visceral. It's palpable. And we haven't really seen him do that yet to a Republican woman. It has bugged me so much that Nikki Haley did not go the Chris Christie route. That's what I wanted her to do. I wanted both of them out there saying he tried to steal an election. He is unfit to serve. Look at all of the ways in which she lies. But she has not done that. She has said all through this nominating contest, "No, I'm a Republican. I'm with you. I voted for him. But now it's time for something different." And I wonder if that doesn't position her well to hang in here and point out to everybody he's doing this to one of us. I am one of you. Look how fast he's made this turn on me just because he wants to be coronated. He doesn't want to work for it. He doesn't want to work for your vote. She's very effective when she talks about how he doesn't show up at the debates. She has said, I want to do this thing. I want this to be real. I want the people to have some power. I think this kind of fellas turn that she's making, where she's constantly talking about the fellas don't know how to talk about abortion. I think that's good stuff. I think she should move into a "did your mama raise you to talk about people like this" kind of vibe. I think she has an opportunity, having stayed with the in-group to point out how ugly he gets to her because he is going to get so ugly to her if she hangs in. And I just think that that could be illuminating to a new set of people.

Sarah [00:14:02] Surely that's not something they don't understand since Mike pence was also a candidate during this primary. It's not like we don't know that he'll turn on you. I do think that the nastiness he brings to women while also calling them nasty is particularly off putting. But those people she's already got locked in. I mean, those numbers should be concerning for him, where she's getting like 75% of independent voters, 65% of college educated voters. This base that is so frustrating to all of us who will not leave this man, even though, even though, even though, even though I could write a novel on the even though, fill an encyclopedia on the even though. I did have a moment where I thought, are we letting the even though just become January 6th in a way that people can compartmentalize it and say, I liked his presidency? Do we need to spend some more time reminding people that he completely mismanaged the pandemic, that he separated children from their parents at the border, that he made us a laughingstock on the international stage? I worry sometimes that people are putting that in a box and not paying attention to the actual bad decisions he made as president. I'm reading this Covid working Group report right now about the Covid war, and they call him a comorbidity. That his leadership was a comorbidity.

Beth [00:15:26] Did you see the headline this morning that his white house pharmacy dispensed uppers and downers like candy?

Sarah [00:15:33] No. Oh my God. And that's the thing like I heard this NPR reporter go, well, Nikki Haley is a conservative. So really the delivery is the only difference. And I thought, are you mad? Are you mad? The delivery is the difference here. No, ma'am. There is way more of a difference.

Beth [00:15:55] Nikki Haley's husband is deployed right now. It's different universes of people. So to your point about, are we letting the "even though" be January 6th? I think Nikki's opportunity-- and I'm sorry to call her Nikki. I know some of you want her to be Ambassador Haley or Governor Haley, I totally agree. But the counterpoint to me is that we love Andy in Kentucky. People do like to know someone, and I think she is likable in a way. So I think her opportunity is to put some newish "even thoughs" out there by provoking the worst of his behavior. When he confused her with Nancy Pelosi, watch the clip of her talking about that and tell me that it doesn't resonate with you.

Nikki Haley [00:16:35] But last night, Trump is at a rally and he's going on and on, mentioning me multiple times as to why I didn't take security during the Capitol riots. Why I didn't handle January 6th better? I wasn't even in DC on January 6th. I wasn't in office then. They're saying he got confused that he was talking about something else. He was talking about Nancy Pelosi. He mentioned me multiple times in that scenario. The concern I have is I'm not saying anything derogatory, but when you're dealing with the pressures of a presidency, we can't have someone else that we question whether they're mentally fit to do this. We can't.

Beth [00:17:24] It is dead on. It's true and it's current. It doesn't carry a whole bunch of baggage. He has not really gone one on one with a Republican challenger. When he won in 2016, he had Kasich and Cruz in till the end. He hasn't had this prolonged stretch where it could just be him and another Republican fighting it out. And I think we could see some new badness there that she could make a lot of really effectively.

Sarah [00:17:54] But the numbers with her and Republicans are so tough.

Beth [00:17:57] They are.

Sarah [00:17:58] And I know people are struggling with like, how is she going to keep going? Or more importantly, how is the media reporting this is over? Well, if you're losing Republicans by 74 to 25% in a state that lets independents vote, it is hard to see a path forward for her. I want her to stay in it and just fight him and make it hard on him, because I was encouraged that there was reporting that she was like, I'm not a perpetual candidate. I'm not trying to set myself up for 2028. I'm done. Which good for you, just on your mental health.

Beth [00:18:27] Absolutely.

Sarah [00:18:29] But I think the take away, all these news, media places takeaways, I think you could do a lot on the general, which is still very far away. But the take away on the Republican Party is that it is not the Republican Party anymore. It is the MAGA party. I wish we'd call it something different. The policies are so far away from anything people identify as Republican. I wish we would just call it the Trump Party or the MAGA party, because that's what it is. And if that doesn't appeal to you, then you maybe need to change your registration.

Beth [00:18:59] I wish we would do that too, and I wish that that would allow us, at the state level, to have people run as Republicans or as MAGA people. I wish that we had a different layout because it is a different landscape. But in the world that we're in today, although I do not numerically see how she gets across the finish line, I wish that she could. I think it is very, very tough. I do hope that people will spend the money to keep her going on this, because it will matter. It will make a difference. And I can't even today predict all the ways in which it could matter, but if she just goes full YOLO here and says, I'm going to say what I mean-- and that won't mean saying everything I want her to say, because I don't think she means everything that I mean. I don't want to project my sensibility onto her, but I think her version of really laying it out, I think she genuinely believes that two people in their 80s are not fit to lead this country into the future. And I think she should just keep saying it. Now, I don't like the flippancy that I've heard from some commentators about her staying like just forget about the money, don't run ads, fly commercial, stay in stupid cheap hotels, do this by yourself. That is not realistic for her because if she does this, it's going to get dangerous. She's going to need security. She's going to need a team of people who are really good at their jobs and who really, really have her back. So I would just say to the Coke Network, what an opportunity you have to do something good for America. If you can keep this campaign going all the way to the convention.

Sarah [00:20:39] I totally agree, because so much of the conversation around Donald Trump, (and I think it is because he was such a baked in part of our culture for decades before he was president) is this weird inevitability, and it just drives me bananas because all the man does is lose. He's a loser.

Beth [00:20:59] I know.

Sarah [00:21:00] Believe me, I know. That we have had an increasing likelihood of presidents who have won the Electoral College, not the popular vote. Two times, in my not very many times voting for presidents, is two times too many. I get that. I get it. Believe me I understand. I'd like to change that. And also it's still rare. It's still hard. And he has shown absolutely no evidence that he can procure a majority of Americans. And that's how I feel like people talk about him. I feel like people talk about him and his candidacies with this sense of like win inevitability. And I'm like, there is no evidence for this, where is this coming from? Because what he's done is to shrink and shrink and shrink his coalition. And I think he has brought people into politics who were low propensity voters and now support him very passionately, for sure. But he's pushed so many people out who are high propensity voters. And I don't understand why we talk about him in this way just because we can't get rid of him. That's not the same as an inevitable winner. Someone we can't get rid of it's like a cockroach, but that's not the same as an asset. You know what I'm saying?

Beth [00:22:24] Yes. And I think we need to have clarity about the fact that his inevitability is now a choice.

Sarah [00:22:28] Yeah.

Beth [00:22:29] The Heritage Foundation has chosen to try to institutionalize Trumpism, to build an intellectual framework, to train up people who are ready to go to be part of his administration, to ensure that it's more effective than the first time. That's a choice. Ronna Romney McDaniel today said she doesn't see a path for Nikki Haley. That's a choice of the Republican National Committee to get involved at this level and say it's already over. Mitch McConnell deciding to shelve the bipartisan immigration talks because he doesn't want to do anything that might undermine Trump, whose name he can barely utter, is a choice. All of these people who've endorsed him-- including people like Nancy Mace, who owes a lot to Nikki Haley-- all of these people endorsing him early and loudly is a choice. So to the extent that the Republican Party has been taken over now by Trump, it's not because, well, what are we supposed to do? That's what the voters want. This time it is because that's what the leadership wanted and it couldn't be any clearer. They don't even want the voters to speak this time. The leadership in state parties and local parties and at the national level has so rolled over to him that it is a decision. This inevitability thing is something that makes them feel better at parties, but it's not true this time.

Sarah [00:23:49] Well, and maybe that's what people are articulating. The inevitability feels that way because he is backed up by one of two major parties in the United States political system. And I get that. I understand that part of it. I understand that there feels like this sunken sense of just what are we going to do if he's become the Republican Party, which is what I just said ten minutes ago. But the Republican Party also doesn't have a winning streak when it comes to the presidency. They have a problem. They have a problem across the United States really, but definitely when it comes to the presidency. And I just want to keep our eye on that. I don't want us to lose sight of that. And it just feels like in so much of the reporting that's not acknowledged because that's not neutral.

Beth [00:24:39] And that problem is real and it presents in so many different ways. I just this morning was reading about an attempt to censure a candidate in my county of Kentucky for state rep by the Republican Party. He's a Republican, and the local Republican Party is censuring him. And in response, another long time, very effective, pragmatic Republican from this area, wrote this Twitter thread about all of it-- X whatever-- and said, "By the way, the person leading the charge on this got kicked out of the moms for Liberty because of her affiliation with the Oath Keepers." That's how bananas it has gotten. And if you pull back from all this, our Secretary of State this morning tweeted out an article from a Kentucky journalist saying the number of Republicans serving in Frankfort is shrinking, just like the number of Republicans serving in the House. And if you want to know why, you got to look at Trump and election denial and all of the craziness that this has sewn. It is bad fruit. The whole thing is bad fruit all the way up and down. And it's not going to suddenly be good fruit because he wins again. It's going to be worse. This is what, Sarah, I can not understand when I watched Tim Scott.

Sarah [00:26:02] I know.

Beth [00:26:04] I cannot understand because I think even if we're just being totally selfish, we're just thinking about you and your life, do you want to go back to every day being asked about a completely unacceptable thing he said about another human being and if you endorse that?

Sarah [00:26:22] Yes or about black people or about Mexicans or about anybody else. Like, did you enjoy your job then? But what other job is Tim Scott going to do? He could find one. He could be a lobbyist. Kevin McCarthy is figuring it out, but...

Beth [00:26:37] He's a senator. He is a senator who tried hard to work on policing legislation with Cory Booker for a long time.

Sarah [00:26:44] And he tried hard to become a senator.

Beth [00:26:45] Remember when they were working on policy things that seemed to have a chance of going somewhere? And all of that just craters because of the MAGA poll. I don't understand it.

Sarah [00:27:00] Yeah. I think it's so hard. I watched them. I was looking up there because Tim Scott was behind him the whole time, and I was just looking at his face, trying to read his expression and think, what do you want?

Sarah [00:27:12] Yeah.

Sarah [00:27:14] What do you want, friend? When you're on your deathbed, what are you going to be proud about? I was watching Eric Trump up there thinking the same thing. And I don't know the answer. I don't know the answer to that question for Mitch McConnell before Donald Trump ever stepped a single teeny tiny toe on the scene. That's a pickle for me on lots of levels, but I think with the voters and the people who are passionately in it with him now, it feels a lot like that. The behavioral science or the psychological phenomenon where you just throw good money after bad. It just feels like at this point if you admitted-- because you can hear people hedge in those focus groups, "Well, I didn't like this, but..." Because if you said, if you admitted what he is, what has been lost in your support of him? Friends, family members, jobs, God knows what. And so they're just so in it. It feels like some existential threat. He's telling them it's an existential threat. And this is it. This is it.

Beth [00:28:22] And I can get there more with the voters than I can with the people like Mitch McConnell and Tim Scott. That I am more confused by the folks who have to, on camera every day, defend this. I was happy to see that Susan Collins says she doesn't see herself endorsing him. It's like, you know what? I'll take it, Susan.

Sarah [00:28:43] Thanks Susan.

Beth [00:28:45] Thank you Senator Collins, I will take that from you.

[00:28:46] Music Interlude

[00:28:55] Well, I wanted to spend just a second, if we could, on what happens from here. We had a question from Jen that was like, why is this over before it has started? This feels so weird to me that so few people have voted and we're already declaring it over. So just a tiny bit on the nominating contests. In the Republican primaries, 2,429 delegates get awarded. So to win, you need 1,215. The earliest that could happen is mid-March. So far, 62 delegates have been awarded, and Trump has gotten half of them because Iowa and New Hampshire are proportionate. So the big blowout is a big blowout in terms of the numbers. But at the same time, delegate wise, he doesn't have them all. It's not 100 to 0. And this is why she continues to have such an opportunity to really get on his bad side by staying in and picking up these delegates.

Sarah [00:29:46] And this is why, though, it's such a tough road for her, because they changed the rules in a lot of states, in particular California, that is no longer proportional, but winner take all.

Beth [00:29:55] If he gets over 50% in California, he gets all the delegates. South Carolina is winner take all. Fifty delegates on the line there, and the person with the most votes gets all of them. So it gets very, very tough for her to have a path. And I do want to say real quickly, I understand what an ask it is of her to stay in and do this, and I just want to acknowledge that it is not an easy thing, but it is a thing that I desperately hope she will do. Okay, different on the Democratic side, Republicans have a little over 2000 delegates. Democrats have 3900 on the first round of voting and 4600 for subsequent rounds. Just everybody remember back in 2016 when we all got really familiar with the language of super delegates? It's just a different process on the Democratic side, some of these delegates are awarded proportionately based on the statewide vote, and some are awarded proportionally based on the share of vote in each congressional district. But the big point that I want to answer, because we've gotten some questions about how does President Biden get the Democratic nomination, if he has to win primaries it's the same way. It's not going to be a difficult path for him, but he does have to win primaries and amass those delegates. It's the same process for an incumbent.

Sarah [00:31:05] Well, and I just want to go back a minute, because I think our two conversations align with what's happening next in this contest. And what a chaos circus the MAGA party is. Do we want to do a style guide right here on Pantsuit Politics? Do we want to just say we're going to start a here? It's not the Republican Party, it's the MAGA party.

Beth [00:31:25] I'm in.

Sarah [00:31:26] Okay. So the MAGA party has sewn their chaos all over the Nevada Caucus/primary. And yes, I have to use both words, which is actually coming up next before South Carolina on February 6th. So in a piece of bipartisan legislation, Nevada's state legislature passed a law and moved from a caucus to a state run primary. Remember, parties run caucuses. The state runs the primary. Okay, so they move to a primary. The Republican Party sued and said, we don't want to. The Democrats are trying to make us. Even though if you remember 30 seconds ago, I said that it was a bipartisan bill. Okay. So, again, and this orientation always to selfishness and chaos because it is the party of Donald Trump, they said, "Well, we're going to hold our own caucus anyway on February 8th." So they're going to have a primary on February 6th where Trump will not be on the ballot. And then a caucus two days later where Nikki Haley isn't a part of it, and the caucus is where they're going to actually assign the delegates. What the heck? That's going to really imbue some trust in the process in the institution among the voters of Nevada, I'm sure.

Beth [00:32:45] Especially because Nevada has vote by mail. So you're going to get mailed a ballot where Trump is not on it. And participate in what looks like an official proceeding, because it is a state run primary, and none of that is going to matter.

Sarah [00:33:02] And no one at the MAGA party said, hold on, wait a minute. This is swing state. We need these votes in the Electoral College. Perhaps we don't want to put all this distrust, conspiracy, confusion into the process when we're going to need people to trust these Mail-In ballots mere months later. No one. No one said that? Anybody?

Beth [00:33:28] I think that's because the leader of the MAGA party never believes that trust in a process benefits him. Never.

Sarah [00:33:38] Which is why he loses elections. Let me just take my moment right there to remind us that he is a loser that loses elections.

Beth [00:33:45] So that's what's next on this journey to the presidential nominations. Sarah, overall, what's your vibe? How are you feeling? What word would you use to describe your posture right now about the primaries?

Sarah [00:34:01] I feel that little eternal flame of anger towards Donald Trump growing because I have to pay attention to him. Again, I don't like that. And not just like listen to him. I'm forcing myself to listen to him. So I can't help it, Beth, I want to channel peace and calm, but I can't when he's around. This is the long and short of it. So I'm trying to build up my tolerance, I guess, is what I'm in the process of doing right now. And I'm still just trying to figure out or gain any information to help illuminate why people keep doing this. Not because I'm not on the Biden campaign team and can offer any insight, but just for my own mental health.

Beth [00:34:50] Yeah, I'm trying to prioritize my own mental health too and just be settled in about this. This is where it is. I want to be realistic. I think sunlight is a good disinfectant as we talk about all the time. And if Nikki Haley chooses to be the sun here to show who he is in a new posture, in a current posture, I think that would be really helpful. And so today I'm just sending all my energy to Nikki Haley and trying to give her strength and support and encouragement to keep going.

Sarah [00:35:24] I like that even though I don't even like Nikki Haley, Beth.

Beth [00:35:28] We do what has to be done. We're not being asked to pick up arms. We're being asked to be cool about somebody with whom we don't agree on everything. It's all right. We can do it.

Sarah [00:35:39] I know. Okay, I can do that. I can do that.

Beth [00:35:41] You can do it. We can all do it. I believe in us.

[00:35:53] Music Interlude.

[00:35:53] We always end our show talking about what's on our minds Outside of Politics, and today it's movies. Sarah, should we just start with the thing that's the thing right now? With the Barbie and the snubbing and the Ryan Gosling of it all.

Sarah [00:36:08] Yeah. I just want to tell everybody, y'all, Greta is going to be fine and so is Margot. Greta Gerwig is the most successful director right now. Not even close. No one's even getting near her, okay?

Sarah [00:36:23] And I feel confident saying that if you asked Greta, what she would tell you is that the box office success that she achieved with Barbie is more valuable to her and her career than an Oscar win. Okay, so she's fine and she's going to be fine. I don't think we need to spend our one wild and precious life being upset or, Lord, even devastated or even slightly frustrated about Greta and Margot. They are fine. Let me tell you what else is fine. Their bank accounts. Because they made so much money off that movie. And that's what Hollywood actually cares about. I know we all like the Oscars, and they do too. And it's not not important, but you know what's more important? How many tickets you sell.

Beth [00:37:09] I don't like the Oscars. I don't care about this at all. So I don't care about this at all. I also don't care about people caring about it, though. I think it's so frustrating when the internet goes crazy about something, but then another part of it goes, "Ugh, I cannot believe you are being so mad about this." I just don't care. If you are a film person and the Oscars matter a lot to you and you genuinely believe that these were Oscar worthy performances and execution of work, [inaudible] being upset about it. That's fine. I just don't feel that. I thought Barbie was fine. As we discussed on the show, I thought it does not hold a candle to Lady Bird, which is another Greta movie. I thought Lady Bird was sensational.

Sarah [00:37:50] And she was nominated for that.

Beth [00:37:52] If I were giving out awards, I see that differently than Barbie. But just feel your feelings about it, I guess, is where I am. This is not for me.

Sarah [00:38:02] This is a great year for female directors. Anatomy Of A Fall has a female director. Past Lives has a female director. So let's be happy about that. Because these smaller independent films, the kind of movies that are in this lineup, it matters. That matters to them. They're not going to be a box office juggernaut like Barbie. They need the Oscar nominations. And what I'm hopeful is happening, Beth. And I'm going to make a pitch that you should pay attention to these films. Is that this lineup-- which Nicolas and I have watched almost all of. I'm missing three from my collection. I've not seen Poor Things, The Zone of Interest or American Fiction. But Anatomy Of A Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives. About halfway through the Holdovers, Nicholas looked and went, "I think they're making good movies for us again." It felt like the 90s when they all went and made their money on VHS. Just good movies. Just not experimental, not very intense, not super political, just beautiful stories that are approachable but also not derivative of a million different Marvel movies. They're good. The Holdovers is good. Past Lives is incredible. Anatomy Of A Fall, oh my, gosh. There is a fight in that movie between a married couple that we all might need a little therapy after. It's just so close. It's so good. And Killers Of The Flower Moon is fine. Lily Gladstone should win the Oscar because she propped up the whole dang movie, which was too long. Oppenheimer was fantastic. It feels like fun film-making again where you're just swept up and you love it. It's just they're good. You got to watch Past Lives. That is a poem on the screen. You will love it.

Beth [00:40:10] You have me with 90s feel, because I loved those movies. Like Good Will Hunting, that era. I love that, and I'm happy to do that. I don't particularly care for the word should around what's supposed to be entertaining to me. And that's not where I am on these things and why I don't care about any of this. But I love to see a good movie. So if you're telling me that there are some good movies on this list, I will watch the good movies. I will not watch the movies that don't fall into that category though. I just want to have a good time when I watch a movie, I really do.

Sarah [00:40:39] Well, I think Anatomy Of A Fall, I don't now if I'd call it a good time. But you should watch it too, because we have--

Beth [00:40:46] There's that shit again. I don't know, Sarah.

Sarah [00:40:48] I'm sorry, we should watch it too because we have legal degrees. And Nicholas and I the whole time, we're like, is this how court in France works? This is bananas. How entertaining that this is how they run a criminal trial. So that part alone is worth it. But, look, I love movies. I'm an only child, movies where my siblings okay? And so to feel like there is this diversity and complexity to the storytelling again and that there's some overlap, this is what I think feel special about this year. I know Greta and Margot got snubbed, but Barbie is up there. Oppenheimer is up there. Killers Of The Flower Moon is up there, which we all saw. They were big blockbuster hits, and they're good. Not blockbuster hits, because there was nothing else to see. Blockbuster hits because they were good and we went to the movie to see them. And that feels really great to me and I'm so glad we're moving in that direction.

Beth [00:41:41] Well, I love that. I would like to just spend a second telling you how much I loved Wonka. You saw Wonka too, did you? Did you like Wonka?

Sarah [00:41:47] I have not seen it. My two littlest kids have seen it, but I have not.

Beth [00:41:50] How did they feel about it?

Sarah [00:41:51] They loved it. Amos has not stopped listening to the soundtrack.

Beth [00:41:54] I'm so delighted to hear that they loved it, Ellen did too. I just thought Wonka felt like a good musical. It felt like the 2024 version of Hello Dolly! I just thought it was so fun and charming and magical and a lovely little story. It wasn't too ambitious. I think that that's the feeling that I really like in movies right now. I like it when I go and I don't think, oh, well, they're trying to be epic. I just want to go see a good little movie. I just picked up a novel last week and I was like, that was a good little novel. It wasn't like trying to be something except a really good story. And that's how I felt about Wonka. Now, I will also tell you about my big disappointment, which is Mean Girls. I was really disappointed in Mean Girls.

Sarah [00:42:43] We're derivative. There's a lot of derivative there. Interesting though because so is Wonka in a way.

Beth [00:42:48] You and I saw Mean Girls on Broadway and it was so fun. And I thought this was going to be so fun, like Mean Girls on Broadway, because it is a musical. I don't know, it just fell really flat for me. And I'm talking about this in part as some accountability, because Maggie had us make year in predictions. And one of mine was that all the youths would fall in love with Mean Girls, and it would be a thing again. And I think that is not going to happen. Jane did not like it at all, my 13 year old. We walked out of the theater immediately saw another girl from her school, she was like, "Oh, I didn't like that." And Jane was like, "I know it wasn't good at all." Jane loved the original. It's not that the story doesn't connect. It's a funny story with relatable themes. And even as those themes now seem super cringey, it's still funny. It's not where we are today, but it's funny. But this was just it seemed to try to avoid some of that, but that took the bite out of it that needs to be there. And I think if you're going to do this, you either need to do it as a remake for the people who love it and kind of celebrate that or take it in a totally different direction. And I feel like they tried to split the difference, and it was just a bummer.

Sarah [00:44:03] Just never works when they sort of split the difference.

Beth [00:44:06] You can't split the difference anywhere in life. You got to pick a side.

Sarah [00:44:07] Y'all need to go read the Bible and Solomon trying to split the baby. There's a fable there for you if you would like it that helps with that learning. And I think that that's what's special-- to go back to the Oscar norms. The places where it works. It's just so special to find a movie-- I could tear up. It's so silly. But movies have meant a lot to me over my life. And it's like when someone does it, when they hit it, when they tell you something new but that connects with something you've known in your whole life, it's just so special. And I don't mind giving him awards for it because it's hard to do. It's hard to do. And so when they hit it, and you're like, "Oh, you named that thing that's so important to me, and you did it in this beautiful way," and it took so many people to do it, which is also this hard accomplishment all on its own. And that's why people are disappointed about Barbie, because Barbie hit for people and they want to see it receive the awards. But y'all just know that Greta's bank account is the blank check she has to make whatever the hell she wants next. That's it. She's got that award. I'm not worried about her because she's also insanely talented, which is its own reward and own momentum in your career. I'm just excited that they're making movies like that. Not that they weren't before, but you know what I mean. Listen, I'm just going to say this. There was a lot of try hard in Hollywood. There's a lot of try hard going on, especially among the Oscar nominees. Remember when they gave it to a silent film? I do. Come on, guys. But I've never seen it. It's actually like one of one of my few Best Picture winners that I have never seen because I went back in my 20s and watched every Best Picture winner, and that's one of the few that I just can't make myself watch. I'm really going to get a million emails. [inaudible] is going to be in my DMs by the time I've stopped recording this, even before it's released. Probably some sixth sense telling me that I need to go watch that. But I think it's that beautiful time where it's a story that hits everybody, but it's special and it's not delicate, but unique and different, but in a way that's not trying to be different, but just in a way that's authentic. Because I think that's what I'm hearing from Mean Girls when I read the criticism and the youth's reaction is it wasn't authentic. I read something about how Regina George would never use Elf products and there was so much product placement from Elf Cosmetics. And they're like, Regina George would not use Elf, y'all. Like, no way, no how.

Beth [00:46:44] One of the first things Jane said about it was that she noticed all the product placement, and she listed all the brands. And it really did come through as just such a corporate play instead of-- and it wasn't biting. It needed more meanness in it. It's Mean Girls. It's supposed to be mean. The only great thing in it was the singing of Janis, because it's Moana. The the actress who voiced Mona is Janis and she's phenomenal. She runs away with the whole thing. I mean, she has such an instrument and such a gift, but you can listen to the soundtrack and get that. The movie itself was not [crosstalk]

Sarah [00:47:23] I feel like the norms was incredible because they're the storytellers, so they get a lot of great parts. Well, what a bummer. But I want to hear other movies. If there's movies out there that connected with people that aren't on the Oscar noms, because I don't mind a should. I love a should around something fun like a book or a movie.

Beth [00:47:39] Yeah. Don't should me, please. But I will take suggestions.

Sarah [00:47:41] Past Lives, that's your first one.

Beth [00:47:45] Loose, loose suggestions.

Sarah [00:47:48] Yeah.

Beth [00:47:49] Well, thank you all so much for being here with us today. We will be back in your ears next Tuesday to continue to process everything happening in American politics. Until then, we hope you have the best weekend available to you.

[00:48:01] Music Interlude

Sarah: Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production.

Beth: Alise Napp is our managing director. Maggie Penton is our director of Community Engagement.

Sarah: Xander Singh is the composer of our theme music with inspiration from original work by Dante Lima.

Beth: Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers.

Executive Producers: Martha Bronitsky. Ali Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller. Tiffany Hasler. Emily Holladay. Katie Johnson. Katina Zuganelis Kasling. Barry Kaufman. Katherine Vollmer. Laurie LaDow. Lily McClure. Linda Daniel. The Pentons. Tracey Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stigers. Karin True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Amy Whited. Emily Helen Olson. Lee Chaix McDonough. Morgan McHugh. Jen Ross. Sabrina Drago. Becca Dorval. Christina Quartararo. Shannon Frawley. Jessica Whitehead. Samantha Chalmers. The Lebo Family. The Adair Family.

Sarah: Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston. Michelle Wood. Nichole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller.